(11/16/03)

   accommodation in WindermereI hate to say it but the Flyers are the best team in hockey at the moment.  They beat you physically.  They beat you skillfully.  They beat you intelligently.  They just plain beat you. 

   As a team the Flyers are playing better now than at the start of the season.  One reason is the increasing emergence of Pitkanen.  Frankly, I did not like much of what I saw of Pitkanen in an early season game in San Jose.  His inexperience was too great for the assets he brought to the table.  But he has improved.  And he provides a valuable creative element that heretofore Philadelphia had lacked.

   Another reason for the Flyers recent dominance is the return of LeClair.  There are three reasons why Johns return has provided a big boost.  First, he is playing.  Second, he is playing on what is arguably the third line.  He seems to have prospered from being relieved of the expectation of having to produce to the level of his salary.  Third, his return permitted Hitchcock to create lines with good chemistry and somewhat defined roles.

   The third line normally consists of LeClair, Handzus and Justin Williams.  Williams energy makes up for Handzus lack of speed and LeClairs age.  Handzus has a good view of the ice and can make passes once he gets the puck.  LeClair can finish.  Williams can create havoc.

   Primeaus two way play has aided Gagne and Kapanen.  Although Kapanen seems to have occasional difficulties finishing, this line has become a serious offensive threat.   Second only to the first line of Amonte, Roenick and Recchi, which at times has been awesome.

   The key is that the improvement on one line tends to feed improvements on another line.  The play of the defencemen has been more than adequate.  The goaltending likewise. 

   Where is the Achilles heel?  One might argue that the Flyers still lack a Stanley Cup goaltender.  Hitchcocks style of play requires solid goaltending.  Time will tell if the present corps will meet the challenge. 

   Short term, one must point out that all of Philadelphias big guns are healthy.  This is not true of a lot of other teams.  

   As a consequence the Flyer brain trust is undoubtedly contemplating the following:  as various forwards with at least some pedigree are bandied about as freely available (e.g. Carter, Gratton, and who knows who else), and as various goaltenders are or rumored to be available (e.g. Joseph, Burke), do you add depth or change the goalie mix?  Or do you take the attitude if its not broke then dont fix it.

(October 25, 2003)

I'll leave this one up for awhile to remind me how wrong I can be.  Nonetheless, the Sharks have benefitted from superior goaltending and the absence of critical injuries. (1/6/03)

(October 4, 2003)

   The article that below was written almost six weeks ago.  It predicted that due to the need for a scoring winger and depth on defense the Sharks will likely may some kind of move.  It has not happened.  All the other nonplayoff teams made efforts to either (1) reduce costs so as to permit a new direction (e.g. PHO), (2) initiate or accelerate a new direction (e.g. CGY), (3) or seek to add established players (e.g. CAR).  The Sharks have sat on their posterior. 

   Notwithstanding a lacklustre preseason the Sharks made no move worthy of note even through the waiver draft.  The Sharks "protected" list contained a few names that would have the most committed Sharks fan scrounging through the roster sheets.  Presumably to keep these names protected the Sharks passed on opportunities to improve themselves. 

   The most glaring example is defense.  Stuart is injured.  Officially his injury will be healed shortly after the season begins.  But the injury nonetheless highlights that Stuart remains at risk notwithstanding his recovery from his season-ending concussion.  McLaren has also suffered injuries in the past.  The Sharks top four is Hannan, Stuart, Rathje and McClaren.  Fahey is next in line.  Thereafter you have a closet full of untested rookies or near rookies such as Davison and Erhoff.  Fahey himself is hardly a veteran. 

   The Sharks could easily have reduced their risk on defence during the waiver draft.  If they were willing to invest some money they could have had Todd Simpson, a proven stay at home defenceman, who came at the price tag of about a $1.5MM salary.  The Sharks passed.  The Stanley Cup finalists Mighty Ducks did not.   

   If the Sharks perceived themselves as strapped for cash they could have gone cheap.  Several defencemen were taken by other clubs.  Even the penniless Pens snapped up Baumgartner from the Canucks.  The Rangers took two defencemen.  Consider even their second selection, Joel Bouchard of Buffalo.  He came at the cost of less than $500K in salary.  If your payroll exceeds $30 Million why scrimp on $500K to help insure that your roster will be effective.

   The Sharks still have time to demonstrate to the fans that they are willing to improve their team.  So far they have demonstrated that either they are counting their last nickel, or they are too afraid to make a move for fear of making a mistake.  Perhaps it's both.  The original article follows.

(August 24, 2003)  (revised August 29, 2003)

   The conventional wisdom maintains that the San Jose Sharks’ collapse last year was an aberration.  Bad karma ripened at the same time that the planets lined up improperly.  The Sharks will bounce back to their old playoff form now that their bad luck is behind them.  Wrong.  If the Sharks’ management believes this they are conning themselves. 

   Conventional wisdom ignores four essential changes: 

   First: Gary Suter retired prior to last year and if he comes back it will not be with the Sharks.  The problem with the Sharks during most of last season was that they let in more goals than they did in the past.  “Star” goaltender Nabokov did not start the season; he was still unsigned.   Blame for the resulting increase in goals against first fell on Nabokov’s stand-in Kiprusoff.   At the first smell of panic Kiprusoff was adjudicated unfit to carry the mantle of a number one, and perhaps not even a number two goaltender.  Nabokov returned and got off to a slow start.  Nabokov’s troubles were blamed on rustiness.  By the time that Nabokov had returned to a form more suitable to his past image the Sharks were pretty much out of it.  As it is the third goaltender, Toskala, had a better save percentage that Nabokov. 

   The biggest change was not play in the nets.  The biggest change was the absence of Suter.  Suter was the quarterback.  Suter made Stuart play like a seasoned defenceman.  Without Suter, Stuart struggled once he rejoined the line-up.  Stuart’s struggles were also blamed on the Sharks’ failure to have him under contract when the season started.  The actual blame lay on the absence of Suter.  For a few months Stuart acted like the lonesome dove that had suddenly lost his mate.

   Second: Prior to last year the GM and ownership were in close communication.  Ownership changed and the GM got fired (and so did the coach that brought them consistent playoff experiences).  Apparently at or before the start of last season the players realized that the new ownership was not George Gund.  Pennies would be pinched, after they were counted.  As the season progressed it was evident that Dean Lombardi was operating under a form of ownership imposed “salary cap”.  Lombardi was blamed for not having Nabokov and Stuart signed when the season started.  Most likely this blame was unfairly placed. 

   Perhaps more importantly, if George Gund were still around would Suter have retired?  If Lombardi were to explain to George that Suter’s presence was essential for stability would George have found dollars to keep him playing for one more year? 

   So far new ownership has made absolutely no indication that they will come up with the extra $3M or $4M to get a player that will give the Sharks a viable chance at a playoff run.  Zermatt alberghi colazioneThe Sharks have conspicuously stood on the free agent sidelines.  Before the draft the Sharks announced an intent to trade draft picks for players, particularly those that can score.  But the likes of Cory Stillman went to Tampa, not San Jose – because Stillman would end up costing around $3M. 

   Players are human.  Few will risk life and limb for a long shot.  Ultimately the blame for last season’s demise falls on the new ownership … and the new ownership remains.

   Third: The Sharks defense has deteriorated further.  In the Sharks’ playoff season they had a healthy Stuart playing well with a seasoned Suter, and a supporting cast on defense that included Hannan, Ragnarsson, Marchment, and Rathje.  As noted, Suter retired prior to last season.  Ragnarsson ended up in Philadelphia with a contract in excess of $3M.  Marchment was traded to Colorado and is now slated to play for Toronto at $2M.  In terms of fair market value the absence of Suter, Rags, and Marchment is an $8M to $9M loss of defensive talent.  These losses were replaced by McLaren, a player with an injury history who, at least to this observer, struggled for most of the season. 

   The Sharks defensive corps at the moment seems to be Stuart and Hannan, Rathje and McLaren, Fahey, Fibiger and Davison.  Stuart missed the last month of the season with a concussion.  Presumably he will be 100%.  But even if he is 100% physically, will he be the same player?  Will McClaren stay healthy?  The Sharks defense, on paper, cannot even approach the quality that they started with last season.  On what basis can the Sharks expect an improvement? 

   Sure there are prospects such as Carkner.  The Sharks went out and signed a couple of free agent college grads.  Is this what you are pinning your playoff hopes on?

   Perhaps the Sharks may yet pull a big deal to land a top flight defenceman (or at least sign a Klee or a Berard).  But remember Item Two:  New Management.  Not only has fiscal responsibility been imposed, but administrative efficiency is lacking.  In the past a phone call to George could achieve results.  Is there a person in the Sharks new ownership group who can unilaterally and instantly approve a $3M increase in the team budget?

   Fourth:  Nolan and Selanne are gone.  Yes, one can legitimately argue that neither played to the level of their contract.  Financially the Sharks are probably better off without them.  But this discussion addresses the Sharks chances of making the playoffs, not their chances of turning in one of the best earnings to book value ratios.  Nolan and Selanne were all stars.  They scored goals.  Who will be scoring the goals next year?  Who will be right wing on the first line?  Who will be right wing on the second line for that matter?

   There’s no doubt that the Sharks have some good young players in guys like Marleau, Sturm, Nabokov, Stuart and Hannan.  But how much more can you expect from Marleau and Sturm as examples?  The key veterans are Damphousse and Ricci.  Good players when they are on their game, but not enough to get you to the playoffs unless your defense is rock solid … which it is not.

   The biggest bright spot for the Sharks is the recent signing of Hannan.  Hannan will be a key player on the Sharks defense.  His reported salary of $1.25M is a distinct bargain.  Either the Sharks were lucky; or Doug Wilson is more skilled in communicating with player agents.  In any event without Hannan under contract the Sharks would have been in a true state of pain.

   Nonetheless, appraise the Sharks honestly and they are competing with the Coyotes and the Blue Jackets.  Do the Coyotes and the Blue Jackets have a chance to make the playoffs?  Certainly.  Would you bet even odds that they will?  I do not think so.  If the Sharks ownership is confident of making the playoffs this season well … excuse me a minute while I look in my drawer for some dot-com share certificates.  Maybe I can swap them for some game tickets. 

   My guess, however, is that Sharks management is not as confident of a rebound as their public pronouncements would indicate.  As a consequence anticipate that a deal will be done during training camp. 

(August 7, 2003)

            According to NHL statistics, Sergei Gonchar was fourth in the league in average time on ice with a figure of 26:34.  The good news is Gonchar will be back.  Brendan Witt, averaging less than 21 minutes a game (but over 23 in the playoffs) will also be back.  Witt has a history of minor injuries and over the past five seasons averaged 68 games played.  Last season he played 69. 

            The bad news is Calle Johansson and Ken Klee will not be back.  Johansson is retiring.  Klee and the Capitals have decided to part company.  Johansson and Klee each averaged a shade less than 22 minutes per game. 

            Where do you replace 43+ minutes per game?  As of yet there has been no satisfactory answer.  Examining the players inked by the Capitals to date there is no one there to fill this time.  Indeed, after Gonchar, Witt, Johansson and Klee, the defenceman with the most games played was Jason Doig at 55.  Very often teams can get by with four solid defencemen.  But rarely with just two. 

            There appears to be no help on the horizon.  Jagr, Kolzig and Lang account for over $20 million in salary on a team where ownership desires to pare expenses.  Add Bondras salary and you come to about $24 million, plus or minus.  There have been numerous reports that the Caps desire to move Jagr, or Lang, or both.  Due to the length of their contracts (reportedly five years for Jagr and four years for Lang) this task will be almost impossible absent accepting a comparable financial liability in exchange.  Kolzig will not be leaving as without him the team has limited prospects.  Bondra is not likely to depart as his skills will be needed, particularly if the Caps should succeed in passing off Jagr or Lang.   The conclusion is there is no wiggle room financially.  Without financial resources it is difficult to add a quality player.

            The Caps cant afford to buy any steaks.   They will have to hope to concoct a winning breakfast out of grits.  Thats the Caps defense:  A collection of $500,000 a year players.  Gonchar and Witt may be the egg and butter; but the rest of the defense is grits.  Some grits may be essential to a nice country breakfast.  Too many grits, with little else, generally does not satisfy in the long run.  The Caps can only hope that some of these grits might at least masquerade as hush puppies.